The growth and popularity of a product is all iterative development on the bones of another product, and lithium-ion batteries are no exception.
Batteries have a history of 200 years as an electrical energy storage device, from the initial non-rechargeable batteries (such as zinc-manganese dry batteries) to rechargeable batteries (such as lead-acid batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries, nickel-cadmium batteries) to the recent lithium ion Battery. Lithium-ion battery technology has been researched since the 1960s, and was commercialized by Sony Corporation in Japan in 1992. It has grown in stages in several stages. Except for the original market increment and the demand for new product launches, it replaces similar products. Functional products gained increment: 1992-1996, it was the trial production stage and the market guidance stage, and there was no large-scale application. Beginning in 1996, it entered the stage of mass production. Due to the obvious advantages of energy density, lithium-ion batteries began to gradually replace the application of nickel-hydrogen and nickel-cadmium batteries in small battery products. From 1996 to 2000, the early lithium-ion batteries were dominated by 18650, which were first applied to notebook computers and some handheld communication devices, gradually replacing the nickel-hydrogen/nickel-cadmium market. From 2000 to 2003, it began to completely replace Ni-MH/Ni-Cd batteries in 3C digital devices such as mobile phones. Around 1998, with the mass production of square-shell and soft-packed lithium-ion batteries, as well as the requirements for lighter and smaller digital communication equipment, lithium Ion batteries basically dominate the 3C digital field. BYD entered the supply chain of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers during this period and began to expand its accessories and foundry business, and its volume began to double; ATL also began to set sail on the ship of Apple during this period. From 2003 to 2007, with the gradual reduction in the cost of lithium-ion batteries, it began to replace nickel-hydrogen nickel-cadmium batteries in the small home appliances, tools, and toy markets. Among them, 18650 developed into a standard product used in the above-mentioned fields. From 2007 to 2011, with the interest of smart phones, soft-pack polymer lithium-ion batteries began to dominate the application market of mobile phones and peripheral devices. At the same time, many companies began to explore the application of lithium-ion batteries in the field of electric vehicles. Since 2011, lithium-ion batteries have been vigorously developing in three directions: 1. Start to enter the field of electric vehicle applications in batches, marking the launch of Model S by Tesla in 12 years. 2. As the Internet evolves from the era of information dissemination to the era of information application, as well as the full development of integrated circuit technology, product R&D and circulation costs are getting lower and lower, and the cycle is getting faster and faster, entering the era of product explosions, and various new electrical appliances Product poverty continues to push up the market volume of lithium-ion batteries, such as Bluetooth wearables, smart homes, drones, e-cigarettes, personal care, and so on. 3. Start to replace lead-acid batteries in industrial energy storage, household energy storage, two-wheelers, tool carts, and UPS. Future market trends Since 1992, the global lithium battery market has reached 200+ billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of more than 20%. It is a long-term, high-growth industry. It can be foreseen that it will maintain a steady growth trend in the next ten years. The following three The growth in these areas is relatively clear:
1. Electric vehicles will gradually replace gasoline vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries will be the main power component in the next ten years. A Although the battery energy density is currently only 200WH/Kg, which is far less than the gasoline's 12000Wh/Kg, the motor efficiency exceeds 90% and is far greater than the internal combustion engine efficiency 30%+, which greatly saves resource consumption. With the advancement of technology and the increase of battery energy density, the bottleneck of the cruising range of electric vehicles will definitely be solved. B Environmental protection factors, electric drives have almost no carbon emissions. C cost, the motor transmission structure is simple, if the cost of the battery drops, the cost of electric vehicles is much lower than that of fuel vehicles. D The electric drive responds quickly, quietly, and is more fun to drive. Now some people are still questioning battery safety issues, cost issues, environmental protection issues of power generation, the difficulty of charging the grid..., but any new thing to replace the old thing is never in place in one step. With the continuous advancement of new product technology, Costs continue to fall and consumer awareness continues to increase. After reaching a demarcation line, it is irreversible to replace old products. In addition, just as we could not predict how smart phones dominate our lives 10 years ago, it is also difficult for us to predict what role cars will play in the future. With the development of the Internet of Things, autonomous driving, and intelligent AI technology, I expect that in the future there will be one person and one car, and cars will become an indispensable tool for people's life, office, and travel, so the market volume is immeasurable.
2. Further compress or even replace the existing market for lead-acid batteries.
3. The arrival of the era of artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things will inevitably give birth to more mobile devices and expand the market capacity of lithium-ion batteries. Technology development trend 1. Cathode: At present, it is developing towards high nickel NCM/NCA, but the energy density is still a bottleneck. In the future, lithium-rich salt may be a direction: 2. Anode: Si material is a relatively clear direction: 3. Electrolyte: inorganic Solid electrolyte is a trend: which battery can replace lithium-ion batteries in the future? There is currently no product that can be mass-produced. The following figure is for reference:
Conclusion:1. The battery new energy industry is still in a golden age of development. 2. Excellent companies can gain insight into industry development trends in advance, seize the opportunity to meet market demand and even create user needs; good companies can achieve the ultimate in their subdivisions, or can occupy major customers to follow the development of the industry; Ordinary companies can often respond quickly to meet customer needs, or be excellent in a certain aspect such as cost; poor companies, relying on opportunities to start in a certain area of business, stick to the rules, and will inevitably be eliminated in the end. 3. There are various chaos in the early stage of the battery industry, but it is not first-come, first-served, and there are no shortcuts. Products are always the first competitiveness.
